I woke up this morning to a sight that I have never seen in Knoxville. There was enough snow on the ground to cover the grass. Thinking that this must be newsworthy, I turned on the TV and learned that the temperature was 19°, the coldest recorded since 1909! Snowfall reportedly exceeded an inch in some places. The state had declared an emergency; all the schools were closed and half the businesses. I was advised by serious-looking talking heads to stay home and not venture out.

I turned on NPR on the way to work and learned that even UT was delaying classes because of the crisis. After about ten minutes it dawned on me that the crisis of cold had pushed the global warming crisis right off the radio. (Although Al Gore admitting he had been snookered by ethanol lobbyists might also have something to do with it). In fact, all the news outlets felt it important to let me know that this was the worst cold snap in 101 years. (It was mid 50's three days ago).

You may be wondering what all this has to do with the stone business or construction; you may even be laughing if you live in Green Bay or St. Paul. It seems to me that every bit of news is hyped to be the worst since the great depression, or the last century, or Noah's Flood.

This is budget time and I have read many industry reports. There is a great deal of doom and gloom. The government is planning to spend another bejillion dollars stimulating something. Yet I have this nagging doubt- is this really the worst? Or is this just silly rhetoric?

Is the war with radical Islam or cyber-terrorism really more frightful than WWI, WWII, Stalin and Mao? Is the climate really going to cook us or freeze us because we drive SUVs? Is construction really going to remain in the pits forever?

In addition to reading published reports, good budgeting requires you to look at your own recent history, talk to others in your industry and try to apply a little perspective. Just as people in upstate NY might be able to give Knoxville a little perspective on snow (a resident of Syracuse reported 45 inches in four days a few weeks ago), those who actually were alive in the great depression might be able to share some of their experience.

As for me, I am budgeting a sales increase in 2011, and even though I occasionally listen to NPR, I am a very conservative guy.

Stay Warm,

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